Key Takeaways
The US v UK interest rate outlook has undergone a radical shift in recent weeks. In the currency markets, this has been reflected by support for sterling.
This could be dented if rising household energy bills dampen the outlook for improving UK growth but we expect the overall impact to be limited.
Consumer confidence should bounce back after the Budget, later this month, as the government has overdone the expectations management.
In the US, most members of the FOMC feel the war against inflation has been won but the Fed remains acutely sensitive to further labour market weakness.
Forecasting currencies is a risky business but I think the next major move in sterling is up.
The last few weeks have seen a radical shift in the interest rate outlook in the US versus the UK. While the BoE cut rates by 25 bps in August, they kept rates on hold at the September meeting and have suggested that further cuts will be gradual. By contrast, the Fed cut by 50 bps in September and Jay Powell, the Chairman, has done little to push back against the markets’ view that further hefty cuts are coming. This has been reflected in interest rates which have moved markedly in favour of the UK. This has supported sterling and underpins my suggestion that it could head towards $1.5 in 2025.
Of course, interest rates are not the only factor at work here. Sterling was appreciating versus the dollar and other major currencies earlier this year even before the interest rate gap opened up. That reflected improving UK growth prospects.
These may suffer as household energy bills rise by 10% this week. This will hit the 4.4 mn households on pay-as-you-go meters immediately. Most are on lower incomes with energy bills double the national average as a share on income. But 85% of households are not on PAYG meters and, with higher incomes, they account for an even higher percentage of overall consumer spending. Indeed, my energy supplier, only recently allowed me to cut my direct debit reflecting the cuts in prices earlier this year. Many others will be in the same position. My guess is that the overall impact will be limited.
Consumer confidence should bounce back after the Budget later this month. The incoming Labour government have overdone the expectations management ahead of the Budget, on 31 October. Yes, taxes will rise but they will be focussed on capital taxes with limited impact of demand. In addition, the housing market is recovering which will further strengthen demand.
It seems likely that investment spending by the public sector, in conjunction with the private sector, will emerge largely unscathed in the Budget. Quite right too. Despite all the gloom and doom in the media, private investment has been growing strongly in the UK this year and, despite the weakness in demand in Europe, by far our biggest trading partner, our manufacturing sector has been doing relatively well. Don’t get me wrong, this is no boom, but it is a much better outlook relative to expectations.
The background in the US is of course also relevant here. Most members of the FOMC have decided that the war against inflation has been won. Consumer price inflation will continue to fall as wage inflation subsides along with areas like auto insurance, rents and hospital bills, which are subject to regulatory and contractual delays. Growth looks good in terms of GDP but the Fed are focussed much more on the labour market.
As we discussed in Market Perspectives in August the US unemployment rate has breached the Sahm rule which has indicated recession in the US with remarkable accuracy and timing. Most economists agree that this time it’s different but the Fed will certainly be acutely sensitive to any further labour market weakness. This week’s US jobs data will be crucial in this regard.
Hard data are not the only factors relevant for sterling. The UK is now seen as politically stable, especially in relative terms, quite a change from the recent experience. Sterling is a risk-on currency which means that it tends to strengthen when global equities are firm. We remain positive on the equity outlook which would be supportive for sterling.
What about the wider implications of a stronger sterling. At one level, it represents a terms of trade gain. Most people will see this when they go on holiday abroad but it has wider effects in terms of lower import prices. Exporters will struggle of course but evidence suggests that this will not be a dramatic effect. UK equity investors may see more significant effects. FTSE 100 companies whose earnings are predominately in dollars will see a straightforward translation loss on sterling strength. The market impact may be attenuated if overseas investors buy more UK equites – they are currently underweight. UK holders of global equities would suffer a great decline if they are unhedged.
Forecasting currencies is a risky business but I do think the next major move in sterling is up. We shall see.